04.02.22a. Astrology, The New York Times, St. Augustine, and the Scientific Method. The New York Times published an op-ed by an astrologer just two days after explaining its high standard for op-eds:

Our decisions about which essays to publish aren't governed by a need for editorial variety alone. Among other things, we look for timeliness, ingenuity, strength of argument, freshness of opinion, clear writing, and newsworthiness.
The Weekly Standard of February 16 contrasted this Feb. 1, 2004 op-ed with that of February 3, just two days later, when the Times published
an op-ed by astrologer, Erin Sullivan on how to use astrology to analyze the Democratic presidential candidates. An example of her style follows.

John Kerry, born on Dec. 11, 1943, is a Sagittarius with four Gemini planets in the public relationship sector of his birth chart. He has a judicial character, but also has little tolerance for fools. Born with the rare Mars retrograde, he entered life with a rage--a deep, inner need to overcome (the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. also had the Mars retrograde). He has a strong sense of responsibility as well as feelings of caution about his message. Over the last 18 months the planets have empowered him with core strength. The long-term picture depicts him achieving his highest goals.
Our university's student association just arranged a deal to have free copies of the New York Times, USA Today, and some other newspaper lying around for students to take for free. At the last faculty association meeting, the Chancellor noted with approval that the New York Times's seemed to be disappearing into student hands first. But might not picking up USA Today have shown a greater appreciation for quality journalism?

This reminded me that St. Augustine demolished the credibility of astrology about fifteen hundred years ago. In The Confessions he says about astrology:

I was now almost persuaded that these were but empty and ridiculous follies. Thereupon he told me that his father had been very curious in such books, and had a friend as earnest in them as himself, who with joint study and conference fanned the flame of their affections to these toys, so that they would observe the moments whereat the very dumb animals, which bred about their houses, gave birth, and then observed the relative position of the heavens, thereby to make fresh experiments in this so-called art. He said then that he had heard of his father, that what time his mother was about to give birth to him, Firminus, a woman-servant of that friend of his father's was also with child, which could not escape her master, who took care with most exact diligence to know the births of his very puppies. And so it was that (the one for his wife, and the other for his servant, with the most careful observation, reckoning days, hours, nay, the lesser divisions of the hours) both were delivered at the same instant; so that both were constrained to allow the same constellations, even to the minutest points, the one for his son, the other for his new-born slave. For so soon as the women began to be in labour, they each gave notice to the other what was fallen out in their houses, and had messengers ready to send to one another so soon as they had notice of the actual birth, of which they had easily provided, each in his own province, to give instant intelligence. Thus then the messengers of the respective parties met, he averred, at such an equal distance from either house that neither of them could make out any difference in the position of the stars, or any other minutest points; and yet Firminus, born in a high estate in his parents' house, ran his course through the gilded paths of life, was increased in riches, raised to honours; whereas that slave continued to serve his masters, without any relaxation of his yoke, as Firminus, who knew him, told me.

Upon hearing and believing these things, told by one of such credibility, all that my resistance gave way; and first I endeavoured to reclaim Firminus himself from that curiosity, by telling him that upon inspecting his constellations, I ought if I were to predict truly, to have seen in them parents eminent among their neighbours, a noble family in its own city, high birth, good education, liberal learning. But if that servant had consulted me upon the same constellations, since they were his also, I ought again (to tell him too truly) to see in them a lineage the most abject, a slavish condition, and every thing else utterly at variance with the former. Whence then, if I spake the truth, I should, from the same constellations, speak diversely, or if I spake the same, speak falsely: thence it followed most certainly that whatever, upon consideration of the constellations, was spoken truly, was spoken not out of art, but chance; and whatever spoken falsely, was not out of ignorance in the art, but the failure of the chance.

An opening thus made, ruminating with myself on the like things, that no one of those dotards (who lived by such a trade, and whom I longed to attack, and with derision to confute) might urge against me that Firminus had informed me falsely, or his father him; I bent my thoughts on those that are born twins, who for the most part come out of the womb so near one to other, that the small interval (how much force soever in the nature of things folk may pretend it to have) cannot be noted by human observation, or be at all expressed in those figures which the astrologer is to inspect, that he may pronounce truly. Yet they cannot be true: for looking into the same figures, he must have predicted the same of Esau and Jacob, whereas the same happened not to them. Therefore he must speak falsely; or if truly, then, looking into the same figures, he must not give the same answer. Not by art, then, but by chance, would he speak truly. For Thou, O Lord, most righteous Ruler of the Universe, while consulters and consulted know it not, dost by Thy hidden inspiration effect that the consulter should hear what, according to the hidden deservings of souls, he ought to hear, out of the unsearchable depth of Thy just judgment, to Whom let no man say, What is this? Why that? Let him not so say, for he is man.

Augustine attacks astrology at greater length in The City of God. In Book V, chapter 6 he says

But even in the very conception of twins, which certainly occurs at the same moment in the case of both, it often happens that the one is conceived a male, and the other a female. I know two of different sexes who are twins. Both of them are alive, and in the flower of their age; and though they resemble each other in body, as far as difference of sex will permit, still they are Very different in the whole scope and purpose of their lives (consideration being had of those differences which necessarily exist between the lives of males and females) -- the one holding the office of a count, and being almost constantly away from home with the army in foreign service, the other never leaving her country's soil, or her native district. Still more -- and this is more incredible, if the destinies of the stars are to be believed in, though it is not wonderful if we consider the wills of men, and the free gifts of God -- he is married; she is a sacred virgin: he has begotten a numerous offspring; she has never even married.

This is another ancient example of experimental reasoning, something I posted about on January 20.

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