...
Counting Charlie, we now have six managers over 75, and I hope that in four years that
number increases by at least two (Bob Shaw and I are both 72). Our rationale: "It's hard
to teach a new dog old tricks."
...
To begin with, float is money we hold but don't own. In an insurance operation, float
arises because premiums are received before losses are paid, an interval that sometimes
extends over many years. During that time, the insurer invests the money. This pleasant
activity typically carries with it a downside: The premiums that an insurer takes in
usually do not cover the losses and expenses it eventually must pay.
That leaves it running an "underwriting loss," which is the cost of float. An insurance
business has value if its cost of float over time is less than the cost the company
would otherwise incur to obtain funds.
...
Charlie and I are of one mind in how we feel about derivatives and the trading
activities that go with them: We view them as time bombs, both for the parties that deal
in them and the economic system.
Having delivered that thought, which I'll get back to, let me retreat to explaining
derivatives, though the explanation must be general because the word covers an
extraordinarily wide range of financial contracts. Essentially, these instruments call
for money to change hands at some future date, with the amount to be determined by one
or more reference items, such as interest rates, stock prices or currency values. If,
for example, you are either long or short an S&P 500 futures contract, you are a party
to a very simple derivatives transaction -- with your gain or loss derived from
movements in the index. Derivatives contracts are of varying duration (running
sometimes to 20 or more years) and their value is often tied to several variables.
Unless derivatives contracts are collateralized or guaranteed, their ultimate value also
depends on the creditworthiness of the counterparties to them. In the meantime, though,
before a contract is settled, the counterparties record profits and losses -- often huge
in amount -- in their current earnings statements without so much as a penny changing
hands.
The range of derivatives contracts is limited only by the imagination of man (or
sometimes, so it seems, madmen)
...
In fact, the reinsurance and derivatives businesses are similar: Like Hell, both are
easy to enter and almost impossible to exit. In either industry, once you write a
contract -- which may require a large payment decades later -- you are usually stuck
with it. True, there are methods by which the risk can be laid off with others. But most
strategies of that kind leave you with residual liability.
Another commonality of reinsurance and derivatives is that both generate reported
earnings that are often wildly overstated. That's true because today's earnings are in a
significant way based on estimates whose inaccuracy may not be exposed for many years.
...
When Charlie and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives
activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don't
understand how much risk the institution is running.
...
Why have intelligent and decent directors failed so miserably? The answer lies not in
inadequate laws -- it's always been clear that directors are obligated to represent the
interests of shareholders -- but rather in what I'd call "boardroom atmosphere." 17 It's
almost impossible, for example, in a boardroom populated by well- mannered people, to
raise the question of whether the CEO should be replaced. It's equally awkward to
question a proposed acquisition that has been endorsed by the CEO, particularly when his
inside staff and outside advisors are present and unanimously support his decision.
(They wouldn't be in the room if they didn't.) Finally, when the compensation committee
-- armed, as always, with support from a high- paid consultant -- reports on a megagrant
of options to the CEO, it would be like belching at the dinner table for a director to
suggest that the committee reconsider. These "social" difficulties argue for outside
directors regularly meeting without the CEO -- a reform that is being instituted and
that I enthusiastically endorse. I doubt, however, that most of the other new governance
rules and recommendations will provide benefits commensurate with the monetary and other
costs they impose.
...
This means that directors must get rid of a manager who is mediocre or worse, no matter
how likable he may be. Directors must react as did the chorus-girl bride of an 85-
yearold multimillionaire when he asked whether she would love him if he lost his money.
"Of course," the young beauty replied, "I would miss you, but I would still love you."
...
These directors and the entire board have many perfunctory duties, but in actuality have
only two important responsibilities: obtaining the best possible investment manager and
negotiating with that manager for the lowest possible fee. When you are seeking
investment help yourself, those two goals are the only ones that count, and directors
acting for other investors should have exactly the same priorities. Yet when it comes to
independent directors pursuing either goal, their record has been absolutely pathetic.
Many thousands of investment-company boards meet annually to carry out the vital job of
selecting who will manage the savings of the millions of owners they represent. Year
after year the directors of Fund A select manager A, Fund B directors select manager B,
etc. �K in a zombie-like process that makes a mockery of stewardship. Very occasionally,
a board will revolt. But for the most part, a monkey will type out a Shakespeare play
before an "independent" mutual-fund director will suggest that his fund look at other
managers, even if the incumbent manager has persistently delivered substandard
performance. When they are handling their own money, of course, directors will look to
alternative advisors -- but it never enters their minds to do so when they are acting as
fiduciaries for others.
The hypocrisy permeating the system is vividly exposed when a fund management company
-- call it "A" -- is sold for a huge sum to Manager "B". Now the "independent" directors
experience a "counterrevelation" and decide that Manager B is the best that can be found
-- even though B was available (and ignored) in previous years. Not so incidentally, B
also could formerly have been hired at a far lower rate than is possible now that it has
bought Manager A. That's because B has laid out a fortune to acquire A, and B must now
recoup that cost through fees paid by the A shareholders who were "delivered" as part of
the deal. (For a terrific discussion of the mutual fund business, read John Bogle's
Common Sense on Mutual Funds.)
...
At Berkshire, wanting our fees to be meaningless to our directors, we pay them only a
pittance. Additionally, not wanting to insulate our directors from any corporate
disaster we might have, we don't provide them with officers' and directors' liability
insurance (an unorthodoxy that, not so incidentally, has saved our shareholders many
millions of dollars over the years). Basically, we want the behavior of our directors to
be driven by the effect their decisions will have on their family's net worth, not by
their compensation.
...
...First, beware of companies displaying weak accounting.
If a company still does not expense options, or if its pension assumptions are fanciful,
watch out. When managements take the low road in aspects that are visible, it is likely
they are following a similar path behind the scenes. There is seldom just one cockroach
in the kitchen.
Soooo . . . "except for" a couple of favorable breaks, our pre-tax earnings last year
would have been about $500 million less than we actually reported. We're happy,
nevertheless, to bank the excess. As Jack Benny once said upon receiving an award: "I
don't deserve this honor -- but, then, I have arthritis, and I don't deserve that
either."
[in full at 04.02.24a.htm .
Erasmusen@yahoo.com. ]
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