A Coin Flip Example for Intelligent Design

1. Suppose we come across a hundred bags of 20-chip draws from hundred different urns. Each bag contains 20 red chips. We naturally deduce that the urns contain only red chips. (Click here to read more.)

2. We realize that somebody might have come along and rigged the bags. So we decide to look at videotape of what happened.

3. On looking at the videotape, we see that someone came along and took away 95 of the bags and replaced them with new bags. We now have lost those bags' evidence of redness.

4. But what about the other 5 bags? Our videotape showed nobody replacing them. Shouldn't we be surer than at (1) that those 5 urns contain only red chips? And mightn't we deduce that the other 95 urns contain only red chips too?